Food crisis, price hike may become regular event

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The country is under imminent threat of a serious food crisis and price hike might turn into a regular phenomenon, say experts.

High prices of grains on international market, domestic drawbacks in agricultural production and the likelihood of recurring floods are a few reasons for the looming crises, they said.

The government’s failure to procure grains in time due to its inefficiency and its mismanagement of the supply chain are also likely to aggravate the situation that will certainly affect the low-income groups, they observed.

They suggested that the government should urgently invest more in agricultural research, technological development to improve domestic food production, and market management.

According to an international agency in Dhaka, international price for best quality rice was $ 260 per metric tonne in 2005. The price was $ 320 in 2006 and it reached $ 340 this year.

On the other hand, international price for wheat was $ 160 per metric tonne in 2005. The price hit $ 210 in 2006 and it soared to $245 this year.

Food prices on the international market might see an increase by upto 80 percent due to an increasing trend of producing biofuels from crops. More and more farmlands are now shifting toward producing such renewable energy, said International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), an international agricultural think-tank.

Dr Uttam Kumar Dev, senior research fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said referring to the WTO (World Trade Organization) consultation that food price in the next few years is likely to increase despite more subsidies in agriculture in the developing countries.

On the other hand, he said, “Domestic food production is also facing enormous challenges, as farmland is decreasing by 1 percent annually, while an additional 2 lakh people every year are putting pressure on the food stock.”

Domestic food production, however, has almost reached the optimum level through the maximum use of existing technologies. As such, “Possibility of change in food yield frontiers is very little,” Dr Uttam Kumar Dev told The Daily Star.

The country’s average food production is 2.73 crore metric tonnes per year and over 20 lakh tonnes it either imports through government or private agencies or gets as food aid. Both the quantity of import and the price are increasing gradually.

Although a boost in research funds, from both public and private sectors, for development of new varieties of crops is urgently needed to improve the production pattern domestically, the fund situation appears to be grim, said researchers.

The recent floods in the country damaged crops worth about Tk 2,000 crore, according to a preliminary estimate by Department of Agricultural Extension. Bangladesh, along with other developing countries, is at the most vulnerable location to be hit by other natural calamities as well.

Agriculture and Environment Adviser Dr CS Karim at a recent seminar said, “Livelihood and food security in future will face enormous challenges. We, the developing nations, are more vulnerable to it, as we do not have adequate knowledge base to face those.”

Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Executive Director Dr Atiq Rahman said flooding in the country seems to occur every 10 other years that used to be every 20 other years a few decades back.

“This is more likely to be the impact of a climate change,” he said citing example of flooding in India, Pakistan, China and Thailand.

He said climate change is set to shift time of rainfall and snow melting that will also change the period of flooding. “If there is flooding when there are crops on the field, it will cause huge damage.”

Such calamities do threaten food and water security, Dr Atiq said adding that there is no alternative to developing technologies and capacities of people to combat natural calamities.

Talking about the government’s setbacks in food management, several officials at food and disaster management ministry said long, cumbersome and complicated procedure for procuring grins are the main reasons behind its failure to reach its target procurement.

As opposed to the target procurement of 12 lakh tonnes of grain during the boro procurement drive, the government only succeeded to build a grain stock of 7 lakh tonnes — 5.50 lakh tonnes of rice and 1.5 tonnes of wheat.

Food prices in the meantime are spiralling up uncontrollably, according to Bangladesh Rifles (BDR), which has almost a year’s experience in food item procurement and sales in the wake of price hike.

Since November last year, price of almost every single food item has increased over 40 percent, according to BDR.

“The price of powdered milk has increased by 120 percent,” said Col Mohammad Abdul Halim of BDR, chief coordinator of Operation Dal Bhat.

The World Bank, in a preliminary assessment titled ‘Bangladesh Floods 2007: Preliminary Impact Assessment’, said the already high inflation rate, 9.2 percent in June, could accelerate in the coming months.

“Rising food prices in particular is the biggest concern. The flood is making it worse,” the report said adding, “Inflation could easily rise further in the next couple of months.”

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