Some concerns matched by major achievements

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World Bank Vice-president Praful C Patel said the results of the caretaker government’s performance over the past year are mixed, with some concerns matched by major achievements in anti-corruption and institutional reforms.

In an interview with The Daily Star he also said Bangladesh is still on course to become a middle-income country by 2016 despite multiple floods, Cyclone Sidr, and the various economic shocks from the anti-corruption drive and wide-ranging institutional reforms.

But, he said a number of constraints have held back the government’s performance, such as a lack of a clear constitutional mandate making the government rather ‘unwilling’ to take tough decisions, uncertainty over the next year’s performance, and a capacity constraint caused by having only ten advisers.

But, he said the reforms will have long term positive impacts and those ‘have to be done’ to catch up with the fast moving world and the region, adding that the Bangladeshi people and the country’s economy are resilient enough to recover from the negative shocks.

He said the caretaker government’s economic performance and anti-corruption success should not be taken lightly, given the fact that those were carried out concurrently with the change of government and external economic shocks.

Patel said the government administrative processes have slowed down because of the capacity restraint that has prevented the bureaucracy from deciding and implementing simple projects.

“We’re very concerned about the slow down,” he said adding that uncertainty looms as the government’s reform plans might go awry in the second half of the next year when election preparations will be in full swing.

The WB VP said, “Although the election roadmap is on course, I am a realist, and to protect the development agenda, prudent development leaders and partners cannot take anything for granted.”

“From experiences elsewhere in the world, we do not want to be caught off-guard. So we have to think of alternative scenarios, such as thinking about what we will do if the elections are delayed,” he said adding that they expect the people of the country will not settle for anything less than fulfilment of the promises of the ‘full roadmap’ to a free, fair and credible election.

On political reforms, he said, “What looked possible before, like the minus-two approach, does not seem possible today, because the two ladies have very strong and powerful power base.”

He however said if the ‘minus-two’ approach can be realised by removing Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina from the helms of BNP and Awami League, then the country will enter into an era of more sustainable democratic governance.

“If you don’t rejuvenate the parties with new blood then the old problems will remain. If you allow the parties to be replenished with new talents then the two major parties can set the country up for a much longer period,” he said.

Patel also said the anti-corruption drive could have been handled better by focusing on ‘big, uncomplicated’ cases with solid evidence allowing quick prosecution, rather than spreading a wide net. The drive was not as equitable and fair as it could have been, because it did not adequately differentiate between big and small corruptionists, he added.

The VP of World Bank said it is also important to reinstate full political democratic rights to ensure that the people can voice their opinions.

He said the best case scenario will be a new political government installed by the end of 2008 with the military back in their barracks, while all the institutional reforms remain in place.

Patel also said investments in infrastructure, human development, water-resources management, and improvement in the business environment are more important focal points to allow Bangladesh to achieve 8 to 10 percent GDP growth and become a middle-income country by 2016.

Although the WB estimates expect GDP growth to fall below 6 percent, Patel said the floods and a cyclone are not enough to take Bangladesh off the course especially if the country has become adept at dealing with those.

He said the government has become better at dealing with natural disasters, while the donors and the government now have a better response system too, and on top of that is the enduring resilience of the people of Bangladesh.

The WB expects the predicted one percent drop in GDP growth to be a ‘one time phenomenon’, because according to Patel, NGOs and the people have crafted a very unique platform that has set the country up for a much more sustainable growth pattern.

This is evident in the economy’s ability to still produce a 5 to 6 percent growth despite five key shocks this year, which were as identified by the WB, rising oil prices, recurrent floods, Cyclone Sidr, government’s institutional reforms, and soaring commodity prices, especially of food.

Patel stressed Bangladesh’s need for immediately mainstreaming the issue of climate change into the development agenda, a move coined ‘Development Plus’ by him. “There needs to be a long run strategy because the natural disasters will cyclically occur more and more,” he added.

He said the suggested move is imperative as climate change will have a much bigger effect here because of increased frequency of natural disasters in a densely populated country with high poverty rates.

The Word Bank VP said now would be a good time to appeal to the international community to assist in improving Bangladesh’s protection from the effects of climate change and natural disasters, in the immediate aftermath of Sidr.

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