Worry over possibility of political instability

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Influential Western diplomats are increasingly concerned about the nation’s return to political instability ahead of polls because of a lack of preparations by major parties and confusion surrounding the fate of two detained former premiers.

The concerns persist despite the breakneck speed of voter registration with photograph because of what they say is a heightened sense of “political uncertainty”.

Both the newly appointed US ambassador James F Moriarty and British High Commissioner Anwar Choudhury echoed these concerns over the last week.

They have both said “credible and participatory elections” would be “extremely difficult” under the state of emergency as it would prevent parties from campaigning.

Speaking separately with The Daily Star, several diplomats said they fear the country might plunge into the political despair of the pre-1/11 due to growing uncertainty surrounding the next general elections.

None of the interviewed diplomats however believes the situation is at a ‘crisis point’, but they have identified hurdles on way to ensure acceptable elections.

They said the government and political parties both need to engage in dialogues to clear the air and build confidence of the electorate and gain assurances of participation by major parties.

Two most significant steps identified by the diplomats are lifting the ban on political activities outside Dhaka and clarifying the ’status’ of the two detained former prime ministers.

Recent meetings between Western envoys with the political parties have hammered home the urgency of holding dialogues to prepare for acceptable elections.

“Paving the way for elections by December remains a key challenge, but we’re hopeful the government and political parties will both realise the need for acceptable elections,” said a Western diplomat.

“We have said that everyone has a responsibility to hold these elections successfully,” said one official, adding, “Finding common ground does not mean they have to compromise on their party ideology or agenda.”

One of the common threads among the interviewed diplomats is the urgent need to resolve the status of the two former prime ministers in order to allow their political parties to focus on reforms and elections.

A number of envoys and senior officials from Western countries told The Daily Star the “uncertain” fate of the two former prime ministers — BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia and Awami League (AL) President Sheikh Hasina — is confusing both political parties and the electorates.

At least one influential Western country has asked to sit in on Hasina’s trial but has not received favourable responses from the government.

However, another senior diplomat said he feels this issue is not a deal-breaker and that too much focus on the two leaders would ensure “individuals remain more important than the parties”.

The official said planned political reforms in all political parties, especially in the AL and the BNP, would allow the parties to take part in the elections without their leaders.

Hasina has already made it clear that AL would take part in polls even if she were not released. She is currently facing trial in an extortion case.

No charges have been pressed against Khaleda.

“There needs to be transparency in the legal and institutional aspects of these trials, and due process needs to be ensured,” said one envoy.

Some of the diplomats said they also felt political reforms and preparations for the polls are lagging behind, but they differed on the reasons behind the slow pace.

Two diplomats also said parties’ preparations for the elections have been obstructed largely by the ban on indoor politics even after it was partially lifted in September.

“If you cannot hold dialogues within parties, how do you expect big nationwide parties to discuss reforms, let alone an election strategy,” said one prominent Western envoy who cannot be identified.

“There is disconnect between the party leadership in Dhaka and the rest of the country,” said the official, adding that the ban has stymied nationwide political reforms.

Most of the interviewed diplomats agreed that these two matters must be resolved for political parties to take concrete and practical steps towards polls like campaign organisation, publicly setting up election agendas and recruiting and nominating candidates.

One frustrated senior official from an influential Western country told The Daily Star they had not expected political reforms to be this slow, but he said it is because of the intransigence of political party leadership.

“They are not lagging behind because of money. There are a lot of funds out there to finance party reorganisations and some parties already have draft reform programmes. It’s because they simply do not want to change the leadership,” said the official, who wanted to remain anonymous.

The US-based National Democratic Institute and other organisations have programs to fund and assist political party reforms.

Some envoys also said they are concerned about rumours over a “national unity government” as they feel it would undercut the movement and momentum towards democracy.

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