Bangladesh News

Unless the government improves gas supply to the existing and emerging power plants, load-shedding scenario will turn worse throughout this year, sources say.

The total gas shortfall in the power sector will be 340 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) this year.

If this gas could be ensured, the Power Development Board (PDB) would be able to generate and supply around 4,900 megawatt (mw) power and keep another 600MW under maintenance, enough to make the country happy. But that is not happening.

Availability of natural gas remains a major issue also for the developing 700MW new gas-fired power plants to be launched by this July.

But Petrobangla sources say they are not sure if enough gas is ready for this 700MW new power.

Right now, different power plants are unable to produce as much as 559MW power due to gas supply problem, which was created due to lack of initiatives by the past four-party alliance government.

Even the caretaker government could not take speedy decisions to address this problem.

Besides, water crisis at the Kaptai dam is also a headache for PDB that operates the Karnaphuli hydropower plant with five 50MW hydropower units. The water level at the dam should be at least 92 feet, but it is now 80 feet.

As a result, this plant is now producing 80-85MW during peak hours.

“The PDB’s present requirement of gas is 850 million cubic feet of gas per day to generate around 4,000MW power, but it is getting 685 million cubic feet, leaving a shortfall of 165 million cubic feet,” says a PDB source.

The next gas-based power plants will need another 175 mmcfd gas by June-July.

Already unable to supply more than 1850-1900 mmcfd gas due to inadequate pipeline, gas supply compressor and other infrastructure support, Petrobangla does not have much to promise for this year.

“This year, the only possibility of increasing power supply would be maximum 70 mmcfd,” says a competent Petrobangla source.

“Of this, around 15-20 mmcfd may come from drilling a new development well in Titas Gas field and another 50 mmcfd from Chevron’s Jalalabad field,” he adds.

This shortfall is adding to non-production of 634MW power by different power plants which are undergoing routine or sudden maintenance and rehabilitation programmes.

The PDB officially puts the present demand at 4,400MW, while it could supply maximum 3,600MW yesterday. If there was no gas supply problem, PDB could have ensured up to 4,200MW power and minimise the crisis by handling only 200MW load-shedding.

“There will always be a percentage of power plants which will undergo maintenance,” says a PDB official ruling out the possibility of turning on all the plants, including those under maintenance, all the time.

Then again, the “official” load-shedding claim does not even match power demand forecast by the power distributing bodies.

Desa and Desco demand more than 1,800MW, while the Rural Electrification Board (REB) seeks 2,200MW and PDB itself needs another 1,500MW. This means that the real load-shedding is around 2,200MW.

Against such a demand, PDB gives REB around 800MW, making it look like the official demand. But during the irrigation season, the government would increase this supply to REB.

Many of the power projects under maintenance programme are expected to begin operation within this month. However, when these would come online, some other plants will go for maintenance.

Sources say the government is trying to fine-tune the maintenance schedule to increase the generation capacity during the irrigation season and take up other measures to lower the power demand.

One of the measures that the government undertook is to close marketplaces after 8:00pm. But this is not reducing the load-shedding.

“The peak hour for power consumption is 7:00pm to 8:00pm. If the market places should be closed to save energy, it should be done before 7:00pm,” observes a PDB source.

Another measure undertaken by the government is asking irrigation related power consumers to operate their pumps between 11:00pm and 5:00am so that the irrigation can be carried out unhindered. The PDB would divert power from the cities to ensure power supply for irrigation.

Besides, as per a schedule set by the past caretaker government, industrial holidays are being staggered in a way so that the demand load is spread throughout the week.

SOLUTIONS
Following a suggestion by Adviser to the Prime Minister Towfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, Petrobangla is considering an idea to address the gas crisis by importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from gas exporting countries.

Japan is a country that is heavily dependent on LNG import for power generation. Japan is also the world’s one of the biggest power consumers.

Another short-term quick solution for power crisis may be installing “genuine” rental power plants without patronising any business groups.

Sources say already a British rental power company Aggreko proposed that in the present state of the country, it could install power plants in Khulna, Chittagong and Bheramara and add 50 to 100MW power to the national grid in a very short notice, for a short period or a mid-term period.

“The authorities might go for more such rental powers from various power companies, based on petroleum, as a short term solution,” quips a PDB official.

When the idea of rental power was first introduced in 2005, rental power schemes turned out to be a costly farce during the alliance rule as power deals were being offered in a manner of offering plots for land.

As that failed, the caretaker government in 2008 also resorted to the idea of getting rental plants totalling 300MW capacity. Of this, four plants totalling 160MW were awarded to inexperienced Energy Prima, another 35MW to inexperienced Venture Energy and a 40MW to Aggreko.

They were supposed to commission these plants by May 2008 for three years. Experience issue was overlooked despite repeated press reports pinpointing that rental power was not the same as other private power projects which are long-term.

Due to inexperience and ill-conceived business model, Energy Prima has not delivered two plants totalling 70MW capacity and Venture Energy its 35MW plant till date.